美元霸权能使美国“再次伟大”吗?——兼论特朗普政府的关税政策

龚 刚

新经济 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (5) : 5-19.

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新经济 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (5) : 5-19.
思想前沿

美元霸权能使美国“再次伟大”吗?——兼论特朗普政府的关税政策

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Can the Dollar Hegemony Make America “Great Again”:Also Discussing the Tariff Policy of the Trump Administration

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摘要

特朗普“让美国再次伟大”本质上就是让美国的制造业再次伟大。制造业具有规模效应,其做大做强必须以更为广阔的全球市场为支撑。在美国看来,当前对美国极为不利的国际贸易环境和国际金融环境是其制造业空心化和贸易逆差的根本原因。然而,当前的国际贸易环境和国际金融环境本质上是美元霸权的结果,对美国而言,带来了无穷利益的美元霸权是不可动摇、不可放弃的。为此,美国准备了三大政策工具,即关税政策、金融政策和安全工具。其中,“关税战”是美国“经济大战”的开始,真正目的是逼着各国与美国谈判,形成有利于美国的金融和贸易协议,促进制造业回流美国。本文的研究认为,如果美国遵循市场经济规律,遵守国际规则,则美国不可能既要维持美元霸权,又要贸易顺差,还要制造业回流。在美元霸权下,美国不可能让美元贬值,只能是人为升值;不可能让贸易平衡,只能是贸易逆差。因此,美元霸权也就不可能让美国制造业回流、“让美国再次伟大”,除非美国利用安全工具,以胁迫的手段与各国签订不平等协议,而这向来就是西方固有的强盗行径!

Abstract

The essence objective of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” agenda centers on revitalizing U.S. manufacturing—a sector inherently reliant on economies of scale that necessitate expansive global markets for sustainable growth. While the U.S. attributes its industrial decline and chronic trade deficits primarily to perceived disadvantages in the current international trade and financial systems, this narrative overlooks the self-reinforcing role of dollar hegemony. As a structural pillar of global economic order, dollar hegemony has generated asymmetrical benefits for the U.S., rendering its abandonment politically and economically untenable.  To counteract these challenges, the U.S. has readied three major policy instruments: tariffs, financial policies, and security measures. Of these, the “tariff war” signifies the onset of America’s “economic warfare,” with the ultimate objective of compelling other nations to negotiate financial and trade agreements that are favorable to the U.S., thereby facilitating the resurgence of manufacturing domestically.  This paper posits that adherence to market mechanisms precludes the U.S. from monopolizing both monetary supremacy and trade competitiveness. The dynamics of dollar hegemony inevitably compel currency appreciation through capital inflows, while structurally embedding trade imbalances via the Triffin dilemma. Such systemic constraints irreconcilably conflict with manufacturing revitalization goals. Absent extraeconomic coercion—exemplified by leveraging security alliances to extract trade concessions—the pursuit of “greatness” remains a zero-sum paradox. This approach, reminiscent of 19th century gunboat diplomacy, epitomizes the inherent tensions between neoliberal rhetoric and neomercantilist practices.

关键词

米兰报告 / 美元霸权 / 制造业回流 / 安全工具

Key words

Milan Report / Dollar Hegemony / Manufacturing Reshoring / Security Tools

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导出引用
龚 刚. 美元霸权能使美国“再次伟大”吗?——兼论特朗普政府的关税政策[J]. 新经济, 2025, 46(5): 5-19
GONG Gang. Can the Dollar Hegemony Make America “Great Again”:Also Discussing the Tariff Policy of the Trump Administration[J]. New Economy, 2025, 46(5): 5-19
中图分类号: F13/17   

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