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20 May 2025, Volume 46 Issue 5
    

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  • GONG Gang
    New Economy. 2025, 46(5): 5-19.
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    The essence objective of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” agenda centers on revitalizing U.S. manufacturing—a sector inherently reliant on economies of scale that necessitate expansive global markets for sustainable growth. While the U.S. attributes its industrial decline and chronic trade deficits primarily to perceived disadvantages in the current international trade and financial systems, this narrative overlooks the self-reinforcing role of dollar hegemony. As a structural pillar of global economic order, dollar hegemony has generated asymmetrical benefits for the U.S., rendering its abandonment politically and economically untenable.  To counteract these challenges, the U.S. has readied three major policy instruments: tariffs, financial policies, and security measures. Of these, the “tariff war” signifies the onset of America’s “economic warfare,” with the ultimate objective of compelling other nations to negotiate financial and trade agreements that are favorable to the U.S., thereby facilitating the resurgence of manufacturing domestically.  This paper posits that adherence to market mechanisms precludes the U.S. from monopolizing both monetary supremacy and trade competitiveness. The dynamics of dollar hegemony inevitably compel currency appreciation through capital inflows, while structurally embedding trade imbalances via the Triffin dilemma. Such systemic constraints irreconcilably conflict with manufacturing revitalization goals. Absent extraeconomic coercion—exemplified by leveraging security alliances to extract trade concessions—the pursuit of “greatness” remains a zero-sum paradox. This approach, reminiscent of 19th century gunboat diplomacy, epitomizes the inherent tensions between neoliberal rhetoric and neomercantilist practices.
  • DING Renzhong ZHU Min
    New Economy. 2025, 46(5): 20-35.
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    After undergoing two periods of kinetic energy transformation, China’s economic development has entered a new normal, marked by significant changes in the constraints on economic growth, the previous development model, which relied heavily on the input of large quantities of factors and resources to “exchange quantity for growth,”  is no longer sustainable, there is an urgent need of transformation from old growth drivers into new ones. Accelerating this transformation is of great significance for maintaining sustainable and promoting economic development, achieving high-quality growth, and building a Chinese path to modernization. It is essential to clarify what constitutes new growth drivers and the theoretical connotation of the transformation, understand the historical stage characteristics of China’s economic growth through these transitions, and define the pathways for this transformation. Specifically, efforts should focus on: coordinating the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation to provide endogenous momentum for the transformation; promoting the integrated development of education, science and technology, and talent to solidify the foundational elements for the transformation; collaboratively optimizing the business environment by shifting from “hard” to “soft” factors to improve market conditions for the transformation; and establishing a demand system driven by domestic demand and supported by external demand to expand market space for the transformation.
  • LI Xiaoxi LIU Shasha
    New Economy. 2025, 46(5): 36-48.
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    In the context of global automotive electrification and intelligent transformation, the traditional vehicle manufacturing industry faces profound changes. Using Guangzhou as a case study, this paper examines the structural contradictions exposed in the traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle value chain under multiple pressures, including market downturns, high inventory levels, and supply chain disruptions. We find that the closed, vertically integrated value chain built on ICE vehicle manufacturing has run into difficulties due to insufficient technological innovation, dependence on external suppliers for core components, and weak industrial synergy, traditional manufacturing enterprises can only break through the low-end lock-in dilemma through dynamic matching and collaborative resonance of technological breakthroughs driving deepening division of labor-division of labor optimization forcing policy innovation-institutional empowerment feeding back technological iteration. To overcome these transformation bottlenecks, it is imperative to construct an open industrial system driven by global resource allocation, supported by technological innovation and international division of labor, and secured through coordinated policy support. By implementing localized upstream strategies for intelligent and electric core components and internationalized downstream market network restructuring, the industry can shift from low-value-added manufacturing to high-value-added segments such as R&D, design, and brand services. Drawing on the successful practices of domestic automakers like SAIC, Chery, and BYD in brand upgrading, global expansion, and supply chain integration, this paper explores a new model that synergizes globalization and local innovation, thereby driving breakthroughs and transformations in traditional vehicle manufacturing amidst international competition.

  • LU Minfeng
    New Economy. 2025, 46(5): 49-62.
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    Financial institutions play an important pivotal role in the modern economic system, and their governance level directly determines the matching between the efficiency of resource allocation and the high-quality development of the real economy. However, due to the defects of governance structure and the deviation of incentive mechanism, some financial institutions fail to give full play to their due functions in the process of supporting the real economy. Based on the research perspective of real economy demand-oriented, this paper systematically analyzes the theoretical basis and innovative practice path of financial institutions governance optimization and enhancement of their ability to serve the real economy. The study believes that financial institutions should focus on the core orientation of the real economy needs to establish a more scientific and efficient corporate governance system. Specifically, the efficiency of resource allocation should be maximized by optimizing the power and responsibility mechanism of the board of directors, improving medium and long-term incentive policies, strengthening external supervision and enhancing information transparency and other governance links. At the same time, it is suggested to ensure the adaptability and sustainability of governance reform by building a policy embedding mechanism, promoting the coordination between the government and the market, and implementing a dynamic adjustment and feedback mechanism. It is further emphasized that the organic integration of the optimization of corporate governance and the orientation of the real economy is not only an important embodiment of the economic and social responsibility of financial institutions, but also a key path to promote their endogenous value creation and achieve high-quality development.

  • WANG Huidong ZHANG Xiaoyun YANG Mengdi ZHUANG Rong
    New Economy. 2025, 46(5): 63-85.
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    The financial market is characterized by its diversity, and the types of assets that investors face are increasing, therefor, how to formulate appropriate investment strategies has become a key concern for investors. In response to the uncertainty of the financial market, this paper proposes a financial investment strategy based on the Three-way Decision TAO model. Firstly, for the three-way decision problem under the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment, fuzzy factors, mean factors, and probability factors are introduced, and a similarity function is used to replace the condition probability usually given by humans. Secondly, when calculating the threshold value, the influence of human psychological factors is considered, and prospect theory is introduced to establish a new three-way decision model. Finally, the proposed model is applied to financial investment problems to verify its effectiveness and is compared with other decision-making methods to illustrate the superiority of the model.

  • WANG Jianfeng NI Dandan LIANG Chen LYU Wenya
    New Economy. 2025, 46(5): 86-99.
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    Taking the case of how the contractual rights of ultra-small-scale farmers restrict the development quality of cooperatives and their access to financing as an example, this paper analyzes the factors of the rural land system behind the difficulty of financing in Chinas agriculture. The contradiction between the integrity of geographical distribution required by the moderate scale operation of agriculture and the veto power of small farmers fundamentally limits the development quality of cooperatives. Subsequently, the empirical analysis conducted by using relevant statistical data and data from practical investigations supports the above judgment. In the future, the rural land model should consider gradually increasing the scale of the per capita contractual rights of agricultural land for the agricultural population, effectively improving the quality of the real economy of agriculture from a financial perspective. In order to solve the possible problem of insufficient financial resources of rural collective economic organizations during this process, it is advisable to consider establishing a special fund for support on the basis of integrating existing financial inputs.

  • LIU Dongyao JIANG Junsong LIU Xin HOU Xinshuo
    New Economy. 2025, 46(5): 100-117.
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    Although the current real estate market in China has shown a deep adjustment pattern, it is still necessary to review and analyze the impact of excessive rising house prices on agricultural growth, so as to provide reference and inspiration for the realization of high-quality agricultural development and reasonable regulation of real estate. The rapid rise of housing prices has changed the macro environment and factor conditions of agricultural production. Based on the data of China County Statistical Yearbook  from 2011 to 2020, this paper uses the fixed effect model to empirically test the effect of excessive housing price rise on agricultural growth. The results show that the rapid rise in housing prices is generally not conducive to agricultural growth. The rapid rise in housing prices has triggered a city-biased factor flow preference, resulting in a decrease in agricultural land, a shortage of agricultural labor, and a decline in financial support for agriculture. The time heterogeneity analysis further verifies that the rapid rise of housing prices inhibits agricultural growth. Therefore, the paper proposes to promote the intensive use of urban land resources and curb speculative demand, build a new model of real estate development oriented by peoples livelihood, and realize the coordinated development of urban economy;  strengthen the financial support for agricultural science and technology innovation and deepen the reform of land system integration, and enhance the endogenous power of agricultural development in multiple dimensions; scientifically plan the development layout of counties, coordinate the use of land resources, and strictly control the excessive development of real estate in counties,  so as to build a new pattern of integrated development with people-oriented, agricultural support and efficient allocation of urban and rural factors, and promote the development of agricultural modernization.

  • ZHANG Chunxia QI Lanlan
    New Economy. 2025, 46(5): 118-134.
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    The advancement of information technology, while driving economic growth and quality-of-life improvements, has concurrently precipitated a rise in telecom network fraud. University students emerge as particularly vulnerable targets of such fraud. Preventive awareness and capabilities against these crimes are fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic status, life experiences,and adaptive competencies. Through a large-scale survey of students in Guangzhou, this study identifies significant socioeconomic disparities in fraud victimization: Urban-origin students reporting suboptimal health and strained social relationships demonstrate heightened susceptibility. Extended digital exposure coupled with online norm violations elevates victimization risks. Enhanced public security infrastructure correlates with reduced fraud incidence. Rural students with consumer debt manifest the highest victimization rates, with older students and those possessing disposable income also showing elevated vulnerability. These patterns underscore the intersectional effects of structural inequalities and digital behaviors, providing actionable intelligence for multi-level fraud prevention frameworks.