ZHU Jianqi LU Zhenlin REN Xinyi LI Jingyuan
New Economy. 2025, 46(10): 134-156.
Against the backdrop of the accelerated global climate governance and the in-depth implementation of China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality strategy, fiscal and tax policies, as the core policy tools for promoting carbon emission governance, their synergy with carbon reduction urgently needs scientific assessment. This paper breaks through the static limitations of traditional regression analysis and introduces the coupling coordination degree model to dynamically track the evolution path of the fiscal and tax-emission reduction system from conflict to synergy. It aims to systematically reveal the interaction mechanism and spatial coordination laws between fiscal and tax policies and the carbon emission system, providing theoretical basis and policy implications for improving the green fiscal and tax system. Based on the system synergy theory and the framework of spatial econometrics, a coupling coordination degree model of the fiscal and taxation policy system and the carbon emission system was constructed. The entropy value method was used to accurately measure the panel data of 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province from 2019 to 2023. Through the construction of fixed effect models, spatial Durbin models (SDM), and Moran index tests, the spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics, internal driving mechanisms, and spatial spillover effects of the coordinated development of the two systems are deeply analyzed, the spatial matching rules of fiscal and taxation tool allocation and regional emission reduction targets are revealed, then, through threshold analysis and regional differences, differentiated policies are designed. The research findings suggest that the overall level of synergy between China’s fiscal and taxation policies and the carbon emission system of Guangdong has been on the rise, but there is a significant regional disparity, expenditure on science and technology and green taxation have emerged as key policy levers driving coordinated development, the spatial spillover effect exhibits a dual characteristic of “core radiation-peripheral suction”, while to achieve a threshold of coordination, it is necessary to rely on the coordinated promotion of a systematic policy combination. Based on the empirical findings, the paper proposes actionable policy recommendations across five key dimensions: advancing systematic optimization of the green tax system, implementing region-specific precision regulation through differentiated green taxation policies, enhancing synergistic effectiveness via optimized fiscal and tax instrument combinations, improving the precision of green tax incentives, and strengthening fiscal policy support for low-carbon transition.